Whose Fantasy Football Start ‘em/Sit ‘em Advice was Most Accurate in Week 7?

By Kurt Scherf

I read quite a few of the start ‘em/sit ‘em advice columns on a weekly basis in an attempt to set my fantasy football lineup. With sometimes conflicting recommendations, it’s been frustrating to know whose advice to heed more than others. I initiated an analysis in Week 7, examining the picks from ten sources:

• Bleacher Report
• CBSSports.com
• FantasyPros
• Heavy.com
• Matthew Berry
• NFL (Michael Fabiano)
• Rotoworld
• SBNation
• Sports Illustrated
• The Sporting News

You can find the results from the Week 6 analysis here (https://www.linkedin.com/post/edit/whose-fantasy-football-start-em-sit-advice-most-accurate-kurt-scherf). The top five most-accurate picks were 1) Heavy.com (67%), 2) The Sporting News (61%), 3) Sports Illustrated (61%), 4) FantasyPros (55%), and 5) NFL (54%).

For my analysis, I compared the projected point total (our Yahoo league uses PPR scoring and some slight variations to the NFL’s standard scoring) against the actual point total of a player. If a start ‘em pick met or exceeded his projected point total (within 5%), it was deemed to be a correct pick. Conversely, sit ’em advice was deemed correct if a player underperformed their point projections by at least 10%.

Topline Results
In the ten columns, 119 players were mentioned. The most-popular “start” recommendation was Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton (all ten writers gave him a start ‘em recommendation).  Putting up 34 points in my league, Dalton met expectations. Other popular “start” recommendations that panned out include quarterback Kirk Cousin (Washington; exceeded point projection by 25%); running backs James White (New England; matched expectations), Jacquizz Rodgers (Tampa Bay; +25%), Spencer Ware (Kansas City; +57%), and Tevin Coleman (Atlanta; +45%); wide receiver Michael Thomas (New Orleans; +92%); and tight end Delanie Walker (Tennessee; +91%).

At the same time, there were popular “start” recommendations that didn’t quite work out. Among them were quarterbacks Marcus Mariota (Tennessee; missed projection by 10%), Philip Rivers (San Diego; -19%), and Matt Ryan (Atlanta; -34%); wide receivers Cameron Meredith (Chicago; -600%) and Allen Hurns (Jacksonville; -50%); and tight ends Hunter Henry (San Diego; -300%) and Zach Miller (Chicago; -83%).

The player receiving the most “sit” recommendations – all 10 columnists – was quarterback Carson Palmer (Arizona). In a game featuring only four made field goals (and two bizarrely short field goal misses in overtime), he fell short of his projected point total by 15%. Matt Forte (running back, New York Jets) received nine sit ‘em recommendations. However, he wound up exceeding his point projection by 182%. Smart sit choices in Week 7 include quarterback Carson Wentz (Philadelphia; -59%); running backs T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville; -175%) and Jalen Richard (Oakland; -75%); wide receivers Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia; -250%), DeAndre Hopkins (Houston; -38%), and Stefon Diggs (Minnesota; -333%); and tight ends Coby Fleener (New Orleans; -40%), Zach Ertz (Philadelphia; -78%), and Jesse James (Pittsburgh; -57%).

In addition to the Matt Forte miss, writers wrongly suggested sitting quarterback Drew Brees (New Orleans; +60% – highest-scoring quarterback in my league); running backs Jay Ajayi (Miami; +313%), Frank Gore (Indianapolis; +100%), and Latavius Murray (Oakland; +110%); wide receiver Golden Tate (Detroit; +15%); and tight end Kyle Rudolph (matched his point expectation).

Week 7 Rankings
There was one clear winner in Week 7 (Bleacher Report, getting 71% of its picks correct), with the other nine columns each scoring 50%.

1. Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2671055-start-em-sit-em-week-7-latest-fantasy-football-lineup-advice-for-sunday (71%)

Good Start ’em Advice: This was only one of two sites (the other being CBSSports.com) that recommended starting Cincinnati running back Giovani Bernard, who had a solid outing (+42%).

Bad Start ’em Advice: Brandon Marshall (wide receiver, New York Jets, -117%).

Good Sit ’em Advice: wide receiver Torrey Smith (San Francisco; – 400%).

Bad Sit ’em Advice: running back Frank Gore (+100%).

2. CBSSports.com: http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-7-start-em-and-sit-em-andy-dalton-dialed-in-for-week-7/ (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: running back Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati; +42%), running back Devontae Booker (Denver; +143%), and running back LeGarrette Blount (New England; +211%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: running back Mike Gillislee (Buffalo; -300%), wide receiver Cameron Meredith (Chicago; -600%), and tight end Hunter Henry (San Diego; -300%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: wide receiver Sammie Coates (Pittsburgh; -800%) and running back T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville; -250%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: quarterback Drew Brees (New Orleans; +60%) and running back Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%).

3. NFL: http://www.nflcdn.com/news/author?id=09000d5d800219d7 (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: wide receiver Michael Crabtree (Oakland; +109%) and tight end Vernon Davis (Washington; +1,200%).

Bad Start ’em Advice: wide receivers Allen Robinson (Jacksonville; -750%) and Cameron Meredith (Chicago; -600%).

Good Sit ’em Advice: running back Matt Jones (Washington; -1000%).

Bad Sit ’em Advice: running back Jay Ajayi (Miami; +313%).

4. Sporting News: http://www.sportingnews.com/fantasy/football/news/who-to-start-sit-week-7-fantasy-football-rankings-sleepers-projections-daily-fantasy-football-picks-lineup-advice/r6fryz5n7im21725jdn80a8ha (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: quarterback Kirk Cousins (+25%) and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (New York Jets; +88%).

Bad Start ’em Advice: wide receiver Torrey Smith (San Francisco; -400%).

Good Sit ’em Advice: running back Matt Jones (Washington; -1000%), wide receiver Chris Hogan (New England -250%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running backs Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%) and Frank Gore (Indianapolis; +100%).

5. FantasyPros : https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/10/week-7-start-sit/ (50%):

Good Start ’em Advice: running back Melvin Gordon (San Diego; +164%) and wide receiver Jamison Crowder (Washington; +89%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: running back Matt Jones (Washington; -1000%) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (Jacksonville; -750%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: wide receivers Stefon Diggs (Minnesota; -333%) and Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia; -250%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running backs Jay Ajayi (Miami; +313%) and Latavius Murray (Oakland; +110%).

6. Matthew Berry : http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMRlovehate161020/fantasy-football-picks-sleepers-busts-trade-talk-week-7 (50%):

Good Start ’em Advice: tight end Jack Doyle (Indianapolis; +175%) and running back C.J. Anderson (Denver; +46%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: Chicago wide receivers Cameron Meredith (-600%) and Alshon Jeffery (-167%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: Chicago running back Jordan Howard (-600%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running backs Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%) and Latavius Murray (Oakland; +110%).

7. Rotoworld : http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/65870/334/week-7-start-em-or-sit-em (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: quarterbacks Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay; +58%) and Kirk Cousins (Washington; +25%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: tight ends Hunter Henry (San Diego; -300%) and Travis Kelce (Kansas City; -250%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: quarterback Sam Bradford (Minnesota; -93%) and wide receiver Stefon Diggs (Minnesota; -333%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running backs Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%) and Frank Gore (Indianapolis; +100%).

8. Sports Illustrated : http://www.si.com/fantasy/2016/10/20/fantasy-football-week-7-start-sit-rankings-projections (50%):

Good Start ’em Advice: running backs Jay Ajayi (Miami; +313%) and Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati; +210%)

Bad Start ‘em Advice: wide receiver Mike Wallace (Baltimore; -100%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: Philadelphia wide receiver Jordan Matthews (-250%) and tight end Zach Ertz (-78%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay; +55%).

9. Heavy.com : http://heavy.com/sports/2016/10/fantasy-football-who-to-start-sit-em-sit-week-7-quarterbacks-qbs-advice-projections-sleepers-busts/ (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: tight end Delanie Walker (Tennessee; +91%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: tight end Hunter Henry (-300%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: wide receiver Will Fuller (Houston; -67%) and tight end Jesse James (Pittsburgh; -57%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running backs Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%) and Frank Gore (Indianapolis; +100%).

10. SBNation : http://www.sbnation.com/fantasy/2016/10/21/13354894/fantasy-football-start-sit-advice-week-7-kirk-cousins-mike-gillislee-jacquizz-rodgers (50%)

Good Start ’em Advice: wide receiver Michael Thomas (New Orleans; +92%).

Bad Start ‘em Advice: running back Mike Gillislee (Buffalo; -300%) and tight end Hunter Henry (San Diego; -300%).

Good Sit ‘em Advice: quarterback Russell Wilson (Seattle; -67%) and wide receiver Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia; -250%).

Bad Sit ‘em Advice: running back Matt Forte (New York Jets; +182%).