By Will Martin
Deja Vu all over again! For the past four years here in Dallas fans of the Dallas Cowboys have been treated to:
A consistent diatribe of oft-repeated phrases by current coach Jason Garrett when the team is winning or struggling.
For the second straight week I was solid with the picks head to head at 10-6 (20-12 YTD).
For the second week in a row the morning treated me well 6-2 and then the afternoon was an absolute beatdown as Green Bay, Denver, and Seattle would come up short in performance or simply not cover in their games.
Hence another 8-8 week against the spread (16-16 YTD).
Expecting a meltdown in Oakland, the Texans proved me wrong. Now they go to New Jersey to battle the Giants.
The Dallas Cowboys played keepaway for over 41 minutes and handled a team from the land of Elvis while Jake Locker resembled Tony Romo one week later with the picks and overthrows.
As Jason Garrett speak might say:
Betting against the spread is a process. The people in Las Vegas are good people who work hard, they come to put numbers together, they go a really good job, and they understand that it’s a process when determining what makes for a good underdog or a bad favorite. We understand the fans like to dance with Las Vegas with the understanding they might fumble the pick on occasion. When those fumbles happen we’ll make them carry a Vegas sheet to bed with them overnight to remind them of the many trends that Vegas brings to the game. We welcome the challenge of being a part of the spread.
Now granted, Jason Garrett is not a betting man. I am by virtue of having done this since 1980 for fun and to share what knowledge I might happen to have. The first four weeks can be a trite crazy as pretenders come out like gangbusters before weather tends to bring teams back to earth.
Having gone .500 for the second week in a row I remind you that under normal circumstances you would pick on maybe one or two games. Don’t be dumb enough to bet on each game. That can get expensive.
Even so I find it interesting the first two weeks of the season there has been an emphasis on the running game. I counted only three 300 yard passers in Week 2 before the Monday nighter.
How did the Bears look so crappy at home in Week 1 and do so well trailing 17-0 on the road in San Francisco? How did Dallas lose to those Red uni guys?
With all the Cowboys chanting in their 26-10 win in Week 2 I had one thought.
Week 3 in itself has some welcome matchups including a Super Bowl rematch from February 2. What used to be an AFC West showdown. I saw the Broncos and Seahawks play one another 9/7/97 at the Kingdome. Denver owned that game 35-14 as they were off to a Super Bowl title.
Fact: Teams who begin the season 2-0 reach the postseason 63% of the time while teams 0-2 do so at a 12% ratio. Random yes I know. Something to keep in mind as we roll out the picks for Week 3.
For the Sunday games I look for Buffalo (-1) to catch a Chargers team coming off the high of defeating a Super Bowl champion. For the rest of the slate let’s go with Cincinnati (-7), Cleveland (Pick) to continue to channel their inner 1980 ‘Cardiac Kids’ run of fun for the people of Ohio, Detroit (-1), Indianapolis (-7), New England (-16), New Orleans (-10.5), Houston (-1), Washington (+7) as the possible upset to win outright this week, Dallas (Pick) to fully utilize DeMarco Murray for another 200 yard day in Missouri.
Arizona (Off Line) will perhaps find a way to win but with the Carson Palmer injury I’d be leery about this team the second half of the season. Kansas City (+4.5) will hang tough with the Dolphins, while Seattle (-5) will dominate the Broncos at the Link but not by 30 plus points. This could be a similar game as we saw here with Denver and Dallas last October here in Arlington. 99 points. I’ll take the Hawks.
Steelers have shown me very little and I expect even less in Carolina when the Panthers (-3) continue to make Mike Tomlin blow smoke from his ears in the Sunday nighter and just to be weird I’ll take the Bears (+2.5) to win on the road at the Jets.
10-6 is the goal. Not 8-8 for a third week in a row. I’ll really feel like Jason Garrett and the Cowboys then.
Again, it’s a process and I welcome the challenge of choosing wisely. Bet what you can afford.
No more no less!